How to Tell?
Surfing the net or using any other source of information, you can find thousands of
gambling systems that promise you to profit from casino games in the long term. A few of them really do something, while others are based on human prejudices or misunderstanding of statistics. A strong wish of all players to beat the casino inspires many people to try and create winning systems or to simulate them in order to attract more readers. So, how can one know whether the system he reads is an authentic mathematical solution or just a piece of SPAM? First of all, it is highly advisable to learn the principal of each game and to see whether the system speaks about actual probabilities or operates terms from the sphere of mystics. This could be quite difficult for a person who has no idea about statistics science and can not tell the difference between formulas and prejudices. Therefore, we will try and explain what games to beat are and why it is impossible to win other games in the long run.
Types of Games:
There are two types of games to beat:
games that offer positive expectations for the player (it usually happens only under very exclusive conditions), and games where outcome really depends on the player's decisions.
Gaming Machines:
Games included in the first category are mostly slots and video poker machines. There are a few machines that offer fixed positive odds, but these are rare. A more common case is a network of gaming machines that has one progressive jackpot, which is accumulated from all linked machines and can be paid out at any one of them. Overall house edge of these machines, of course, is not negative, otherwise casinos would never install them, but when the progressive jackpot reaches a certain point (called break-even point), the game becomes favorable for the player.
The trick here is that only people who bet the maximum amount of coins (normally 5) qualify to this progressive jackpot. Other players, who bet less, are still paying vigorish in the form of a positive house edge. Another negative side of this system, which does not change a thing for the casino, but spoils the fun of the player, is that positive expectations are completely based on the main jackpot, and the player must get the very best combination to realize his advantage, which may take hundreds of hours and thousands of dollars. During that time the jackpot can be won by another person playing at another machine linked to the same network, and the player will return to a positive house edge as the game would have if there was no progressive jackpot. In any case, it is more advisable to play video poker and not slots, because, played with a basic strategy, video poker machines have lower house edge, and therefore their break-even point is lower.
Blackjack:
The second type of the games to beat involves more intelligent methods. Speaking about casino games, there is only one game that belongs to this type. It is blackjack. Blackjack, played with basic strategy has very low house edge. It depends on the specific table rules, but it any case, it varies from 1% to 3% and can be beaten employing a so called card counting system. This systems allows a player to know an approximate composition of the remaining deck and therefore evaluate probabilities of certain cards to be dealt. This gives him a possibility to adapt his strategy and, above all, to bet accordingly to his odds. Card counting requires training and a lot of attention during the game, but it is an easy part of winning blackjack. A more difficult part is the basic strategy, which must be used together with card counting in order to provide positive expectations. Many combinations of the players cards and the dealers up-card exist. Most of them must be memorized very well to be used in the real time. The advantage of card counter is so tight that the smallest mistake will make him lose money. So, although blackjack winning strategy exists, and, in fact, is available for anyone, it requires a lot of training and mental effort to perform.
Poker:
Another strategic game is poker, but the forms of poker played in casinos give too much advantage for the dealer, which makes the game almost unbeatable. Played against other players, poker can also be profitable. Poker, however, is a sport, and, as any other sport, rewards only the best players, so lots of training and talent are required to profit from it.
Betting on Sports:
Sports betting depends a great deal on the decisions of the player and also is beatable. The odds given to a sports bettor are based on public opinion. If the bettor is good enough to make a better analysis of the game, he can profit from sports betting.
All other gambling games played against the house are unbeatable.
Craps:
Some of the craps bets have a very low house edge, but there is no possible way to influence the outcome of the dice, and therefore craps is good to play for fun, but always is disadvantageous in the long term.
Roulette:
Roulette, being a subject to many pseudo-winning strategies, is also unbeatable. Roulette wheel is a mechanical random number generator, while roulette betting scheme is designed to produce a fixed house edge, so the player has nothing to do about it.
Keno:
Keno is played in a slow pace, so playing rationally, a player will not lose much money, but its house edge is nothing less than 25%, so it is completely impossible to overcome it.
In other words, only blackjack, slots or video poker with progressive jackpot and sports betting are games to beat. All other games can be played for fun, taking into the account, that this fun is not free.